Moreover,inlarge-scale problems, the labels typically have certain (unknown) hierarchy.

We prove tight lower bounds for online multicalibration, establishing an information-theoretic separation from marginal calibration. In the general setting where group functions can depend on both context and the learner's predictions, we prove an $Ω(T^{2/3})$ lower bound on expected multicalibration error using just three disjoint binary groups. This matches the upper bounds of Noarov et al. (2025) up to logarithmic factors and exceeds the $O(T^{2/3-\varepsilon})$ upper bound for marginal calibration (Dagan et al., 2025), thereby separating the two problems. We then turn to lower bounds for the more difficult case of group functions that may depend on context but not on the learner's predictions. In this case, we establish an $\widetildeΩ(T^{2/3})$ lower bound for online multicalibration via a $Θ(T)$-sized group family constructed using orthogonal function systems, again matching upper bounds up to logarithmic factors.

This paper presents a prediction algorithm that estimates the vehicle trajectory every five milliseconds for an autonomous vehicle. A kinematic and a dynamic bicycle model are compared, with the dynamic model exhibiting superior accuracy at higher speeds. Vehicle parameters such as mass, center of gravity, moment of inertia, and cornering stiffness are determined experimentally. For cornering stiffness, a novel measurement procedure using optical position tracking is introduced. The model is incorporated into an extended Kalman filter and implemented in a ROS node in C++. The algorithm achieves a positional deviation of only 1.25 cm per meter over the entire test drive and is up to 82.6% more precise than the kinematic model.

We thank the reviewers for their valuable time and thoughtful feedback. Our method also has a provably log-time prediction algorithm, enabling almost real-time predictions. We next use label partitioning to improve over NMF-GT for larger datasets (Table 2). We do mention that for Mediamill and RCV1x there were no clear label partitions. We thank the reviewers for these suggestions.

An algorithm that outputs predictions about the state of the world will almost always be designed with the implicit or explicit goal of outputting accurate predictions (i.e., predictions that are likely to be true). In addition, the rise of increasingly powerful predictive algorithms brought about by the recent revolution in artificial intelligence has led to an emphasis on building predictive algorithms that are fair, in the sense that their predictions do not systematically evince bias or bring about harm to certain individuals or groups. This state of affairs presents two conceptual challenges. First, the goals of accuracy and fairness can sometimes be in tension, and there are no obvious normative guidelines for managing the trade-offs between these two desiderata when they arise. Second, there are many distinct ways of measuring both the accuracy and fairness of a predictive algorithm; here too, there are no obvious guidelines on how to aggregate our preferences for predictive algorithms that satisfy disparate measures of fairness and accuracy to various extents. The goal of this paper is to address these challenges by arguing that there are good reasons for using a linear combination of accuracy and fairness metrics to measure the all-things-considered value of a predictive algorithm for agents who care about both accuracy and fairness. My argument depends crucially on a classic result in the preference aggregation literature due to Harsanyi. After making this formal argument, I apply my result to an analysis of accuracy-fairness trade-offs using the COMPAS dataset compiled by Angwin et al.

We consider the problem of online prediction for an unknown, non-explosive linear stochastic system. With a known system model, the optimal predictor is the celebrated Kalman filter. In the case of unknown systems, existing approaches based on recursive least squares and its variants may suffer from degraded performance due to the highly imbalanced nature of the regression model. This imbalance can easily lead to overfitting and thus degrade prediction accuracy. We tackle this problem by injecting an inductive bias into the regression model via {exponential forgetting}. While exponential forgetting is a common wisdom in online learning, it is typically used for re-weighting data. In contrast, our approach focuses on balancing the regression model. This achieves a better trade-off between {regression} and {regularization errors}, and simultaneously reduces the {accumulation error}. With new proof techniques, we also provide a sharper logarithmic regret bound of $O(\log^3 N)$, where $N$ is the number of observations.

Conformal prediction has emerged as a general and versatile framework for constructing prediction sets in regression and classification tasks (Shafer and Vovk, 2008). Unlike traditional methods, which often depend on rigid distributional assumptions, conformal prediction transforms point predictions from any prediction (or black-box) algorithm into prediction sets that guarantee valid finite-sample marginal coverage. Originally introduced by Vovk et al. (2005), it has become increasingly influential, with numerous methods and extensions being proposed since its introduction. In particular, full conformal prediction by Vovk et al. (2005), demonstrates favorable properties regarding the coverage and the size of the prediction set. However, these advantages are counterbalanced by a substantial computational cost, which limits its practical application.

Identifying the interaction targets of bioactive compounds is a foundational element for deciphering their pharmacological effects. Target prediction algorithms equip researchers with an effective tool to rapidly scope and explore potential targets. Here, we introduce the COMET, a multi-technological modular target prediction tool that provides comprehensive predictive insights, including similar active compounds, three-dimensional predicted binding modes, and probability scores, all within an average processing time of less than 10 minutes per task. With meticulously curated data, the COMET database encompasses 990,944 drug-target interaction pairs and 45,035 binding pockets, enabling predictions for 2,685 targets, which span confirmed and exploratory therapeutic targets for human diseases. In comparative testing using datasets from ChEMBL and BindingDB, COMET outperformed five other well-known algorithms, offering nearly an 80% probability of accurately identifying at least one true target within the top 15 predictions for a given compound. COMET also features a user-friendly web server, accessible freely at https://www.pdbbind-plus.org.cn/comet.

Forecasting of armed conflicts is an important area of research that has the potential to save lives and prevent suffering. However, most existing forecasting models provide only point predictions without any individual-level uncertainty estimates. In this paper, we introduce a novel extension to conformal prediction algorithm which we call bin-conditional conformal prediction. This method allows users to obtain individual-level prediction intervals for any arbitrary prediction model while maintaining a specific level of coverage across user-defined ranges of values. We apply the bin-conditional conformal prediction algorithm to forecast fatalities from armed conflict. Our results demonstrate that the method provides well-calibrated uncertainty estimates for the predicted number of fatalities. Compared to standard conformal prediction, the bin-conditional method outperforms offers improved calibration of coverage rates across different values of the outcome, but at the cost of wider prediction intervals.

-- Predicting agents' behavior for vehicles and pedestrians is challenging due to a myriad of factors including the uncertainty attached to different intentions, inter-agent interactions, traffic (environment) rules, individual inclinations, and agent dynamics. Consequently, a plethora of neural network-driven prediction models have been introduced in the literature to encompass these intricacies to accurately predict the agent behavior . Nevertheless, many of these approaches falter when confronted with scenarios beyond their training datasets, and lack interpretability, raising concerns about their suitability for real-world applications such as autonomous driving. Moreover, these models frequently demand additional training, substantial computational resources, or specific input features necessitating extensive implementation endeavors. In response, we propose Gaussian Lane Keeping (GLK), a robust prediction method for autonomous vehicles that can provide a solid baseline for comparison when developing new algorithms and a sanity check for real-world deployment. We provide several extensions to the GLK model, evaluate it on the CitySim dataset, and show that it outperforms the neural-network based predictions. Trajectory prediction is a heavily researched topic with numerous applications including Autonomous Driving (AD). Recent efforts have focused on multi-modal and interactive prediction models [1], often utilizing deep learning to handle complex interdependencies [2]. Observations from researchers suggest that a constant velocity prediction model often provides a more robust baseline in such scenarios [4]. Moreover, many researchers and practitioners prefer to employ more reliable and computationally efficient methods for their systems [5].